Research shows that Glasgow and Edinburgh are set to exit recession in mid-2023 but not Aberdeen


Edinburgh and Glasgow are included in the top 10 cities set to exit recession in mid-2023 according to research from The Irvwin Mitchell City Tracker produced by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) Edinburgh’s economy is predicted to be 1.1% larger in Q4 2023 than it was in the final quarter of 2022.

It is also expected to be in the top 10 for job creation with employment levels rising by 1.6%, taking headcount to 371,200. Glasgow comes eighth in the table for GVA growth ( is the measure of the value of goods and services produced in an area, industry or sector of an economy) with a 0.8% year-on-year increase expected in the final quarter of 2023. This would take the size of the economy from £23.3 billion to £23.5bn.

Edinburgh and Glasgow are amongst the fastest growing as the UK emerges from recession in the second half of 2023, according to a new study by law firm Irwin Mitchell, although the report predicts a tough year for Aberdeen. At the end of this year when the UK is expected to be out of recession, GVA in the city is expected to fall by 0.2% to £16.7bn. The city is expected to see employment growth of 0.7% in Q4 2023 compared to Q4 2022.

Charlotte Rees-John, partner and head of Irwin Mitchell’s consumer sector, said, “…those businesses that succeed during 2023 will be in a very strong position to take advantage of a more stable economic environment in 2024.

Category: News
Tags: Centre for Economics and Business Research, Irvwin Mitchell City Tracker, recession